Every day a new social network is born and yet another dies. This makes spotting digital trends and tracking them to be challenging at times. However, I have found a system that works really well called Open Files. It was developed by George Stalk at the Boston Consulting Group (an Edelman client). It's become the framework for my latest talk, which I have been giving around the world. (For more on the research process behind it, see my post on deliberate practice.)

Stalk tracks trends by breaking them down into three distinct buckets - faint signals, a watch list and hallucinations. He talks about this at length in this great podcast (mp3) with the Harvard Business Review. In a nutshell, faint signals are here and now trends with real consumer movement and business models. The watch list is exactly that - new directions that are emerging but may not be ready for primetime. Finally, hallucinations are flashes that, if you squint, they might vanish.

Below is the deck I have been using for my talks. It covers what I am currently tracking in my personal Open Files. I have summarized these below...

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Faint Signals

• The Cut and Paste Web - I believe (and I could be dead wrong here) that the era of web sites is coming to an end, ushering in an era of web services. To succeed, brands and content producers will need to make sure their content is portable and can go where the people are. Example: the NBA's successful widget program


• The Attention Crash - It's a fact that for many of us, the number of inputs we have as individuals has exceeded what we are capable of managing. Those marketers who keep it simple will succeed. Example: Will it Blend.


• Digital Curators - Just as there are curators in a museum who can separate art from junk, in the coming years we will see a boom in those who fulfill this role in the digital realm. The media, brands and individuals will all fulfill such a role. Example: American Express' collaboration with Federated Media's small business bloggers.


• Super Crunching - The digital space is the most addressable media ever. However, many marketers are not quants. To succeed, marketers will need to use data mining and visualization tools on the front end, as well as in measurement. Example: tools like Google Trends.


• Collaboration - The web is not just a communications vehicle but a platform for action and collaboration. Companies and NGOs globally will increasingly identify the shared desired outcomes they have with their audiences and then pursue them together. Example: Brita's Filter for Good (an Edelman Digital program).

Watch List

• Living Room 2.0 - The living room may become a focal point for where we engage with social networks. However, there are a gaggle of devices and it's still early days. Examples: Flickr on Apple TV


• Geek Marketers - Some companies are hiring cross-trained experts who are digital anthropologists, grok technology, but also marketing. Example: Jim Kukral

Hallucinations

• Digital Nomads - A small but growing number of knowledge workers are going independent, traveling the world and working from anywhere. It's conceivable that one day the enterprise will be a lot more virtual than it is today. Example: Anywired.


• Data Leaking - An entire new generation of workers that grew up with the web laments that the experience and productivity that the consumer web delivers outpaces what corporate IT can offer. Some are moving their communications to venues like social networks. Example: Silicon Alley Insider reports that Facebook is slowly encroaching on email.

Those are the trends that I am currently tracking in my Open Files. How about yours? What am I missing?