While waiting to meet a former colleague the other night, I was having a conversation on Twitter with the head of the digital practice at another agency. I was tweeting some basic thoughts about the future of digital PR, and more precisely the future of our client base, and the effects that the so-called credit crunch will have on our business.

My thesis – which I will admit comes as much from personal experience and conversations with others in the field – is that larger, multinational corporations are going to start consolidating their digital activities while the smaller-sized companies and start-ups are going to be lead the final stages of our little digital revolution.

There's a maxim that larger companies can survive bad economic times simply by playing it safe and becoming as conservative as possible in their business practices. Unfortunately for digital PR, this means our greatest strength – that we're operating outside of the traditional PR and marketing box and ultimately we're providing a service that cannot be measured using traditional (or, arguably, any) ROI models – will become one of our greatest liabilities. Conservative budgets and marketing executives worried about getting the sack will force the majority of digital activities into proven systems. I don't necessarily mean email marketing or ad campaigns, although those are the most obvious applications as they are the most easily measured, but the incentive to take risks with cool new digital stuff – or to invest in 'proper' community relations and relationship-building over simply 'securing coverage on blogs' will decrease.

Startups on the other hand may be the companies that step up to fill that gap, working with agencies like us (and the competition!) to continue and complete the communications shift we're experiencing. It isn't a matter of fetishizing the newest technology as the 'next big revolution in communications' but of using these developing tools in concert with each other to anticipate how people will be connecting and communicating in the next ten years, as this turns into a global recession or depression – a scenario which looks all the more likely.

Paul Graham has an excellent article called 'Why to Start a Startup in a Bad Economy' in which he rightfully points out that bad economies are equally as risky for start-ups as good economies. A key quote:

If we've learned one thing from funding so many startups, it's that they succeed or fail based on the qualities of the founders. The economy has some effect, certainly, but as a predictor of success it's rounding error compared to the founders. Which means that what matters is who you are, not when you do it. If you're the right sort of person, you'll win even in a bad economy. And if you're not, a good economy won't save you. Someone who thinks "I better not start a startup now, because the economy is so bad" is making the same mistake as the people who thought during the Bubble "all I have to do is start a startup, and I'll be rich."

Graham essentially argues that the value of the startup's idea and its willingness to take risks is the prime determining factor of success rather than the economy itself, so it stands to reason that companies and executives who insist on 'playing it safe' will do exactly that – demand their ludicrous and outdated ROIs on social media engagement, leaving the innovation to the innovative.

I argued on Twitter that this is something we're going to experience more and more of, especially after the new year and the budgets and resulting conservative business decisions it will no doubt bring – which isn't necessarily a bad thing for our business. My colleague at the other agency respectfully disagreed, and that's a perfectly reasonable thing to do. My prediction certainly isn't conventional wisdom, and I'm no economics guy (but if you want to know about Native American literature, I can talk for hours!) So I caveat this post that I could very well be wrong.

But I also caveat it with the idea that I could very well be right.

In fact, I would extend an open invitation to start-ups and smaller-sized companies who might be put off by Edelman's client roster and think that we'd ignore them in favour of the multinationals we service. Nothing could be further from the truth; we'd love to work with you. And frankly - at least one of us believes you're going to be driving the future of our business. So it makes sense that we'd want to talk to you.

Consider this not only a prediction but a call to action for small businesses and start ups: find me on Twitter (@BrotherMagneto) and let's talk about what Edelman Digital can do for you. We're nothing if not visionaries ourselves. Viva la revolution!