I have written in the past here that most online communities don't have staying power. The pace of change online is incredible and someone eventually builds a better mousetrap that attracts all the mice.
Twitter is the latest darling. With its technical difficulties and the initial novelty behind it, Twitter's growth once again appears to be on the upswing. It seems like the site could have staying power for at least a few years. But now a crack may be forming in the wall.
Hugh Macleod today wrote that he is leaving Twitter because he feels it makes him lazy. There's no doubt that Twitter, Facebook and other short form venues steal time away from blogging and that many are slacking off.
The truth is that standing out in the blogosphere has never been harder for those who don't blog for a living. This is simply because it requires original thought - something people don't have the time or patience to do. So, they migrated their time to Twitter since it's so new and relatively easy to build an audience there.
So is Twitter now toast? Hugh could be a harbinger. Rex Hammock feels Twitter can be a time waster and he has found a way to manage the firehose. Blogger Eric Rice comments that "Twitter is the tech blogosphere’s Second Life." But I don't see it happening yet.
But, for sure, there will come a day when Twitter will pass its crown off to someone else. It's the nature of the game online. Even a perennial champion like my Yankees don't win every year. They have had long droughts - like no trophies in the 1980s. On the Internet, everyone will face such a trough. But the Grim Reaper is not knocking on Twitter's door yet.


Comments (14)
Thanks for mentioning me, Steve. While I've looked for ways to "manage" Twitter better, I can't give it up. I think it's the blogosphere's back-channel. Who would want to give up something that cool?
Posted by Rex Hammock | April 10, 2008 5:04 PM
Posted on April 10, 2008 17:04
Agree with you, Steve. I'm not hearing Dylan's Knockin' On Heaven's Door for Twitter. Twitter doesn't make anyone lazy, no app or SNS does...if you need an excuse for not getting work done, you can use it for that, but man, that is lame. You make yourself lazy. It's your choice. I'm not buying @gapingvoid's rationale. Figure out your threshold, moderation, utility and move on. Stopping cold turkey, just not seeing it...to each his own.
Posted by Zena Weist | April 10, 2008 5:17 PM
Posted on April 10, 2008 17:17
Good thoughts as usual Steve.
But I don't think Twitter will implode like the Yankees. They've had decades to build brand loyalty, [and let's face it] a monster budget.
Twitter has had , 2 years really, and a relatively tiny budget.
But you're right that something we don't know yet, will supplant Twitter at some point.
But it does have nearly universal appeal and infinite user motivations.
Oh, and you can follow the RedSox on Twitter when you're ready. RedSox Nation opens it's arms to recovering Pinstripe fans. ;~)
Thanks again,
Ed
Posted by NextInstinct | April 10, 2008 5:30 PM
Posted on April 10, 2008 17:30
This is why the main focus of anyone who is serious about social media is building media properties. Twitter is fun, and can be complementary to that main goal, but you're still someone else's user-generated content.
Posted by Brian Clark | April 10, 2008 6:42 PM
Posted on April 10, 2008 18:42
Like Rex, I too keep adapting to the fire hose that Twitter has become for me. I can't give it up right now, but I am trying to find ways to keep myself invigorated for blogging.
Kudos to Hugh for making a decision on what strategy is right for his creative outlets. I can see how it would be the right one.
Thanks for the analysis Steve!
Regards,
Rick Mahn
Posted by Rick Mahn | April 10, 2008 11:27 PM
Posted on April 10, 2008 23:27
I just wish anyone I actually knew tweeted, so that it wouldn't be all these stranger's tweets I'm reading. It makes the computer a less lonely experience I guess, but a world full of strangers tweeting. It must be scary at times. Alas.
Posted by Brandon Payne | April 11, 2008 3:45 AM
Posted on April 11, 2008 03:45
I find that people who babble are not really tweeting. In order to qualify as a tweet, the 140 chars must be composed with the musical craftiness of a true songbird.
I have recently removed several who simply create too many meaningless tweets. Private conversations via twitter are like annoying chatter during a public event (i.e. a "forum" -- such as a seminar, a colloquium or a concert or similar "presentation").
Either twitter is public speaking or it is meaningless. I prefer the former -- and remove the latter.
:) nmw
Posted by nmw | April 11, 2008 8:56 AM
Posted on April 11, 2008 08:56
Hey Steve,
Twitter is the front door to my online (and many offline) relationships. I'm hooked, for now. That said, I don't like its reliability, and think the "groups" functionality can and should be far more iterative. Anyone that can take what Twitter has and build on it in a meaningful way is going to take some share... unless of course, it's the Twitter team that does it.
rwm
Posted by rick murray | April 11, 2008 9:04 AM
Posted on April 11, 2008 09:04
I have a tremendous amount of respect for Hugh Macleod, but didn't he blog recently that "if you're not on Twitter, then I won't have anything to do with you?" Now, I am paraphrasing a bit -- but I think that's essentially what he said. Did I misunderstand Hugh's comment? If not, then I'm impressed with how quickly Twitter became at risk of jumping the shark. The meat of their cool wave went from SXSW 2007 - SXSW 2008.
Posted by Marketing Headhunter | April 12, 2008 1:55 PM
Posted on April 12, 2008 13:55
I am finding this whole Hugh and Twiiter thing, increasingly frustrating. For goodness sake, it is ONE man, who never posted THAT frequently anyway, frequently linked to his own blog (which is what made him his name and which is STILL his main outlet for his messages) and i still incredibly active on the blogosphere.
Did we all stop using Facebook just because Scoble decided he had had enough? No.
Hugh made his name from his blog and I for one, couldn't care which network he is part of. I know where to find him when I seek his wisdom.
NB: don't get me wrong, have nothing against Hugh (and I am a HUGE fan of his insightful thoughts) but i think we need some perspective here!
Posted by Paul Fabretti | April 13, 2008 3:21 PM
Posted on April 13, 2008 15:21
It seems to me the main reason that people are having Twitter overload is because they decided to follow every single user who might possibly have something to say. I've seen users who are following hundreds and hundreds of people. No wonder Twitter is a distraction. Compound that with using a notifier like Twitterrific or Thwirl and Twitter would be a complete and utter productivity killer.
I've been a Twitter hold-out for the longest time, but I finally converted. I've been very selective on who or what I follow. I don't anticipate every following more than 10-20 people at any time. If someone follows me, I check to see who they are. If they just added me because they hope I'll add them back, I block them. Harsh? Perhaps, but if I don't know you, I don't necessarily want you following my Twitter feed nor do I want to follow yours.
Like everything else, Twitter is great... in moderation.
Posted by Scott K | April 14, 2008 12:21 AM
Posted on April 14, 2008 00:21
Twitter today reminds me a lot of the WELL.
1) A rarified group has adopted it as a favorite
2) It breaks down often
3) Point #2 has yet to piss off the folks in Point #1 to the degree that they leave.
4) The value inherent in the network makes Point #4 possible.
Posted by Phil Gomes | April 14, 2008 10:39 AM
Posted on April 14, 2008 10:39
I like twitter and have been using it a lot. Plus it is really cool to integrate it with facebook to update my status.
Plus I have met a lot more people on twitter. Which is cool. However, I'm not really sure if they "really" listen to what I say or what they think of it. Because not everyone replies to my twits.
What is crazy is the producer of Rocketboom.com is selling his twitter account on ebay. Which is smart to earn money, I think it's up around $1,100. But, it's not a good idea to do to your followers. There are some people who actually like to hear what he is saying. Plus they actually feel as if they are connected to the person. When he tries to sell it, he is disappointing his followers.
Posted by Nick Schmidt | April 14, 2008 6:57 PM
Posted on April 14, 2008 18:57
As a blogger about mobile websites and mobile marketing, I find twitter to be quite helpful as a means of alerting followers that I have a new blog post and also to read the blogs of those I follow. It's really a shortcut, especially on the phone. I try not to add too many extraneous tweets and am likely to follow other people who are involved in the mobile internet, marketing and public relations, as well as web 2.0. So for me, I like it, I don't think it is going away soon, and I enjoy reading some of the background thoughts of my favorite bloggers.
Posted by twitter.com/mobienthusiast | June 29, 2008 1:14 PM
Posted on June 29, 2008 13:14